Wednesday, September 4, 2019

The Fifth Risk by Michael Lewis

Where would we be without Michael Lewis? Few authors can claim their work to contribute as much to the global vocabulary on finance, sports and analytics. Moneyball, The Big Short, Flash Boys and, now, The Fifth Risk have become shorthand for step changes in their respective industries. You can't talk about the 2008 financial crisis without talking about The Big Short and any conversation about sports analytics is bound to mention Moneyball. In addition to these landmark books, Lewis has also written the best outsider's view of behavioral economics (The Undoing Project) and recorded one of the best non-fiction podcasts of 2019 (Against the Rules). I've reviewed Lewis several times on this blog already, but I can't help feeling a little giddy everytime I see a new release from him. He's just that good.

The Fifth Risk, a look into three misunderstood US federal agencies, is not teeming with fascinating characters like The Big Short and doesn't evoke the same warm feelings as The Undoing Project, but it does leave you with a genuine sense of bewilderment and disbelief. In a telltale anecdote, a US presidential candidate singles out The Department of Energy as one of the governmental agencies that he would close if elected. But what exactly does the DOE do? With a budget of over 20 billion dollars, it must be an example of government waste, goes the thinking. The DOE is, in fact, in charge of maintaining the country's nuclear material and weapons, a task that any presidential hopeful is likely to applaud. Throughout the book, Lewis shows how an orthodoxy of small government has blinded us to some of the obviously good and necessary work being done within it.

The Fifth Risk - explained as the risk that comes from neglecting unlikely long term risks like nuclear accidents - is split in three sections, each of which addresses a different governmental agency: the aforementioned DOE, the Department of Agriculture and the Department of Commerce. Unlike most of Lewis's books, the characters don't transcend their roles and are confined to individual sections. It's my only squabble. The Fifth Risk reads more like three excellent pieces of investigative journalism than a fully realized book. I first read parts of the DOE chapter in Vanity Fair (and loved it!), but The Fifth Risk takes the story only a bit further.

As with Lewis's work in general, there are multiple levels here. The Trump administration's disinterest in actually running the government is the obvious starting point. It's only the surface. In a concise 200 pages, Lewis addresses many of the ails of the modern United States. Politics is untethered from reality and policitcians are unable to perform some of government's most rudimentary functions. Blatant cronyism has suddenly become acceptable. "The free market" is expected to right wrongs that are clearly beyond its control. Somehow, freewheeling fools and disingenuous charlatans are given government positions that they barely understand. The whole polity is obsessed with regime affiliation, and so on.

It's a grim read with black humor that would make for a great Cohen brothers movie. The Fifth Risk is, among many other things, a reminder that details matter. It's easy to deal in imperatives and principles. It's much harder to gain a genuine understanding of an issue and work years to address it. It's a critique that is first directed at a number of political movements in the Western world - the Republicans, populist Europe, modern monetary theory - but it's not limited to them. Understanding and working with dirty details is perhaps the best vaccination against tribalism and government dysfunction.